However, the inverse is also true as potential adversaries could use such technology to find and exploit any vulnerability within the Alliance. While quantum’s maturity remains decades away, if NATO is able to win the race for adoption and military capability integration then NATO will gain an edge in having the wealth of knowledge needed to successfully tackle any emerging crisis while researching new technologies. Likewise, quantum sensing advancements hold the potential to obtain positional data of all aircraft and submarines which would deliver transparent skies and oceans facilitating rapid support to decision-making through the enhanced understanding of the real-time operational environment. This is already forcing a reassessment of how information is protected and highlights the inherent vulnerabilities within growing interconnectedness of critical infrastructure. Effectively, any transmissions that are not protected by post-quantum cryptography run the real risk of having its classified information compromised. From a generalized perspective, the development of quantum communications will revolutionize the protection of distributed data systems as quantum cryptoanalysis has the potential to preclude transmission interception and data decryption. Quantum represents the largest leap forward in computing potential and power, and the first actor to successfully develop a general-purpose quantum computer will immediately become incredibly influential. The revolutionary impacts of quantum and AI will likely prompt ground breaking reassessments of what NATO could be capable of in the future and fundamentally shape the future operating environment. Encouragingly, NATO’s technological innovation lies at the forefront of development, giving NATO the opportunity to be the first to militarise these emergent and significant technological advances. The challenge, therefore, becomes a race to harness technologies that increases resilience beyond that of your adversaries’ offensive capabilities. NATO faces a unique challenge from technologies like quantum and AI because of the possibility an entire state’s defence network or critical infrastructure may be attacked, destroyed, or disrupted, including its nuclear arsenal. This is especially true for NATO’s nuclear decision-making, a multistep political process geared towards managing the escalation between NATO and its adversaries through the use of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement. In the scenario, it could be envisaged that nuclear decision-making, the rationale underpinning the development of nuclear policy and ‘use once’ nuclear deterrence has failed, which sparks a fundamentally important conversation to address whether existing policy and the cognition of key decision-makers is resilient enough to cope with such circumstances. The impacts of quantum and AI empowered ISR on nuclear decision-making are less fully explored and may pose significant risks due to the possibilities of escalation, disinformation and enhancing cognitive biases, which could lead to changes in the way escalation management is considered. EDTs have already transformed thinking on nuclear deterrence, and future technology developments and applications involving quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to revolutionize aspects of Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) intrinsic to nuclear deterrence. Reality though is likely to become stranger than fiction. Traditional perspectives on the implementation of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) into nuclear deterrence are usually considered to be the work of science fiction, ranging from The Terminator to Dr. President calls for an emergency NAC meeting to discuss the rise of a multipolar nuclear deterrence environment and how NATO’s deterrence policy must now adapt. and NATO missile defence systems in South Korea, Alaska and Romania, Washington raises the DEFCON level. Following a series of cyberattacks believed to stem from Macau and Vladivostok on U.S. Quantum Computing and Artificial Intelligence Expected to Revolutionize ISRīrian.sostak by Strategic Alternatives Branch, Strategic Plans & PolicyĬonsider the following Scenario: Classified intelligence indicates China is on the cusp of fully integrating quantum-enhanced AI into its nuclear command and targeting systems.
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